Speaking in Ohio today Hillary Clinton portrayed her opponent Donald Trump as a charlatan in business and perhaps even a crook.

HILLARY CLINTON: “He’s been involved in more than 3,500 lawsuits in the last 30 years.  A large number were filed by ordinary Americans and small businesses that did work for Trump and never got paid.  Painters, waiters, plumbers.  People who needed the money and didn’t get it – not because he couldn’t pay them but because he could stiff them. ((EDIT)) My late father was a small business man.  If his customers did what Trump did, my dad would never have made it so I take this personally.”

Strong words.

Almost immediately Mr. Trump responded on Instagram.

TRUMP: “Hillary Clinton’s only right about one thing: I understand debt and how to handle it.  I’ve made a fortune with debt.  But debt for this country is a disaster, and Obama has piled it on, and she’s been there watching." 

Now we can expect stuff like this almost daily until November.  Some of it will be headache-inducing.

Tomorrow Donald Trump makes a speech in New York City, and you know he's going to hammer Mrs. Clinton on economics.

Both candidates understand that right now the race is fairly close and that has to worry Secretary Clinton.

A new CNN poll has Clinton ahead of Trump 47 - 42 among registered voters.

However, in Ohio a Quinnipiac poll shows the race is tied 40-40.

In Pennsylvania it's just about tied as well -- Clinton 42, Trump 41.

In Florida Clinton leads trump 47-39.

Donald Trump needs to win all three of those states, and his polling has been going south for the last three weeks.

But Trump remains very competitive in Pennsylvania, which has recently been a Democratic stronghold.

And even though he's lost some ground in Florida, that state is fluid.  Trump won big there in the Republican primary.

So Hillary Clinton knows she has a lot of work to do to defeat Mr. Trump, who has made major mistakes but is still in the game.

Talking Points believes that the conventions will not be very influential, meaning not a lot of minds are going to be changed there.

The big event will be the first presidential debate on September 26th in Dayton, Ohio.

Whoever wins that debate is likely to be president, especially if they win it decisively.

The other debates will not matter as much.

Polls say about 22% of Americans have not made up their minds yet.  That is a low number this far away from Election Day.

But that 22% will decide things.

And that's the memo.