Data specialist and political analyst Liberty Vittert Capito predicts what will make a difference in this election.

TRANSCRIPT:

O'REILLY: So Joe Biden's got 81 million votes. Most of them, according to exit polling, were anti-Trump votes. Not we want Joe. I can't see Kamala Harris, because Trump now has been around so long, coming close to the 81. I feel she's in the 70 range, popular vote, 70 million. That's where I think she is, because Trump has now the advantage of a failed Biden-Harris administration. Am I wrong?

CAPITO: No, I think you're right. I think we have two types of voters in this country. I think we have a pro-Trump vote and an anti-Trump vote. It's not a pro Harris vote and a pro-Trump vote. I think you're you're absolutely right.

O'REILLY: Okay. So if the Biden and there's no if about it, Biden and Harris have hurt the American worker because costs for essentials of life are up 20%. So even if you hate Donald Trump, don't like him, don't approve of him, all right, you're getting hurt. And I think some of those people whose hatred probably is not as high as the NBC News people, I'm they're going to go you know, I don't like either of them, but I'd like to have more money in my pocket. That's where it is for me.

CAPITO: Yeah. I mean, we we sort of have seen this election come down to either whether things are going to be about the economy and immigration or whether it's going to be about social issues. If you care about the economy and immigration, it's going to be a Trump vote. If you care about the social issues, it's going to be a Harris vote. And right now, the story is our economy.

O'REILLY: Yeah, I mean, people have got to live. Now, I'm worried about my analysis because I was wrong in 22 and I'm not usually wrong. And I admit when I'm wrong, but I'm not usually wrong. I called the Biden bail out way before anybody else. But I was wrong on the so-called red wave because we were in the middle of those prices going up in 22, but there was no red wave. The people hung out and voted Democrat. And I was shocked by that. Can you explain it?

CAPITO: Yeah, I think I think it's there's a really big difference when you're looking at polling on sort of midterm elections versus presidential elections. The presidential election is really what sets the tone and it trickles down. You don't have a trickle up effect. So, for example, a governor's race in a state is not going to affect who that state is going to vote for for president. But who that state votes for, for president is certainly going to affect who the senator or the governor is going to be. And so I think that's what we really saw in 22, was there was still that trickle down effect from 20.

O'REILLY: What about the lingering effects of Covid? That's gone now, of course. But I've always said to myself, you know, maybe 22 wasn't a harbinger of how the nation was feeling because Covid intruded in some way. Did you see that at all?

CAPITO: Absolutely. We saw that a lot in exit polls. We saw that a lot in focus groups with people feeling really still unsettled, uneasy, scared. You know, that was still a time where people were masking and were really afraid of what was happening.

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