A brand new poll from Monmouth University asks, “Have race relations in the USA.become better or worse since Barack Obama became president?”

Ten percent say better, 53% say worse, 33% say there’s been no change.

Next question, “Do you think that racial and ethnic discrimination in the USA is a problem?”

Sixty-eight percent say it’s a big problem, 12% say it’s a small problem, 10% say it’s not a problem.

Then, “Has Black Lives Matter made racial issues in America better or worse?”

Ten percent say better, 48% say worse, 36% say things haven’t changed much.

According to all the polls, Donald Trump is dominating among white male voters but not doing that well in the black and Hispanic precincts.

Here's a breakdown of voting patterns last time around:

In 2012, 72% of the ballots cast were white voters. 13% were black. 10% were Hispanic and just 3% were Asian.

Voter turnout among white voters was 64%.

Sixty-seven percent of black voters turned out, no doubt because Barack Obama was on the ballot.  Among Hispanic voters, 48% showed up. Forty-seven percent for Asians.

Right now, there are about 11 million more eligible voters than there were in 2012.  Almost 75% of those new voters are minorities – that’s a sign of how the USA is changing demographically.

For Donald Trump to win he has to turn out the white vote in great numbers.  If he does that, he can live with 20% or less of the minority vote.

And it is obvious at this convention and by the Trump strategy itself that his campaign believes white voters will put him in the White House.

All of this sounds kind of ominous, that you have an election pitting whites against minorities, and Talking Points wishes that were not the case but it is.

This time around many white voters feel aggrieved.  They feel that the Obama administration is not looking out for them, thus the rise of Donald Trump.

In the end, voter turnout will make the difference.

Hillary Clinton will have to stimulate much support in the minority communities because the rise of Trump has already demonstrated that white working men in particular are on his side in great numbers.

And that's the memo.