By Bill O'Reilly

It's always dicey to prognosticate about an election that is 15 months away, but some trends are solid, and "T-Points" wants you to know about them.

Wednesday night I said that just three Republicans have a realistic chance at getting the nomination: Romney, Perry and Bachmann. And the congresswoman is a long shot.

As far as President Obama is concerned, he is working hard for underdog status. The recent economic chaos and debt debate debacle has hurt his leadership profile, and that is showing up in the polls.

Rasmussen daily tracking among likely voters has 43 percent approving of the president's job performance, 56 percent disapproving. Gallup daily poll has 41 percent approving, 51 percent disapproving. Fox News asked if President Obama is a strong leader: 51 percent no, 45 percent yes. Also we asked: If the election were held today, would you vote for Mr. Obama? Fifty-one percent said no, 44 percent say they would.

On the state front, a map put together by University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato indicates that the president is leading in states totaling 247 electoral votes. The Republicans have 206 electoral votes; 270 are needed to win. But Florida and Ohio have 47 electoral votes between them. They are in the tossup category, but state polls indicate trouble there for the president.

Of course polls are just a snapshot in time, but few expect the economy to dramatically improve over the next 15 months, and the economy will dominate the voting.

The Republicans though have one major problem: the Tea Party. They want a hard right approach to fiscal matters, and if a moderate like Mitt Romney gets the nomination, they might not support him. Traditional GOP folks believe that independent voters, who are turning away from Mr. Obama big-time, would go for a guy like Romney or even Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

"Talking Points" analyzes political trends based on facts and science, not emotion or wishful thinking. Right now President Obama's presidency is in deep trouble, but his opposition is having trouble defining itself, and the primary process will be grueling. The election itself, however, will largely be a referendum on the president and the Democratic Party's economic philosophy. It will likely be the most important election in our lifetimes.

And that's "The Memo."

Pinheads & Patriots

PBS guy Tavis Smiley apparently can't get President Obama to sit for an interview, and that's not sitting real well with Princeton Professor Cornel West.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CORNEL WEST, PRINCETON PROFESSOR: If a right-wing brother like Bill O'Reilly can get interviews, and brother Tavis can't or Roland Martin can't, that raises questions to me. It's not a personal attack. It's just a question of a pattern here in the White House. We want accountability.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

That's interesting that Brother West wants accountability because we've been trying to get him on "The Factor" for about a month. He's dodging us. You've got to walk the walk, professor, or risk being labeled a pinhead.

— You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" and "Pinheads & Patriots" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the Fox News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: oreilly@foxnews.com.