This campaign season is and has been dominated by Donald Trump, and that is not changing.
A new CNN poll of Republican and independent voters has Trump continuing to surge, with 32% now favoring him for the presidential nomination.
Dr. Ben Carson, who will be here shortly, is second with 19% -- up ten points in less than a month.
Jeb Bush has 9%.
Ted Cruz, 7%.
Mike Huckabee, 5%.
Scott Walker, 5%.
Carly Fiorina, 3%
Rand Paul and Marco Rubio, also at 3%
John Kasich and Chris Christie clock in at 2% each.
So it is clear that Mr. Trump is setting the pace and his mistakes have not yet hurt him.
Those mistakes come in two forms. First, he gets way too personal in defending himself against criticism.
The latest is a Rolling Stone Magazine article that quotes him as disparaging Carly Fiorina's looks.
Trump says he was just kidding, but a president can't do that and Donald Trump should be thinking of himself as a president. That's how you win.
Personal attacks get a lot of attention, but Trump doesn't need any more attention. Everybody knows him.
Instead of lobbing verbal grenades, he should begin putting forth some incisive problem-solving statements.
Look, I have no beef with Trump or anybody else pointing out that the country is losing power abroad and is chaotic at home.
Problems are rarely solved, poverty is on the rise and many Americans are angry.
Trump has brilliantly locked in on that and his poll numbers show it.
But it would serve him well to knock off the petty stuff and make better editorial decisions.
Rolling Stone Magazine? Was the Moscow Times not available?
Why would you allow them access? They hate you, Donald!
Ben Carson is the anti-Trump, but he needs to sharpen his message into sound bites that really bite.
Getting into a faith controversy with Trump does the doctor no good.
Comparing Obamacare to slavery is provocative, but you need to hammer home your point or risk being demonized as an extremist by a largely dishonest national press.
Carson is a good man who understands that traditional values provide far more success than politically correct madness, which indeed does enslave. He needs to hone that message.
Jeb Bush is also a good man who did very well governing Florida.
But his style is hurting him.
NARRATOR: “Having trouble sleeping at night? Too much energy? Need some low energy?”
(Clip runs of Jeb speaking at a rally with a woman in the audience sleeping)
NARRATOR: “Jeb for all your sleeping needs.”
I don't know Governor Bush very well but my advice is, be far more confrontational about things you believe are wrong. Show some passion.
Passion is no problem for Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee, conservative guys who see America as a nation in steep social decline.
At this point their messages are not taking hold because of the “Trump factor,” which almost obliterates standard ideological campaign rhetoric. Without Trump in the race, Cruz and Huckabee would be polling better.
Carly Fiorina has run a very good campaign, so far establishing herself as the anti-Hillary Clinton and showing courage by taking Trump on.
But most voters still don't know her and her business record is dubious -- two enormous hurdles.
Governors Kasich and Christie are trying to break through but are having a very difficult time getting media attention because Trump is getting most of it.
Both have to break out in next week's debate in order to establish some momentum, which they do not have now.
Rand Paul is done. His isolationist platform not appealing in the age of ISIS and Iran.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's campaign is a mess.
She should fire John Podesta and the political assassins she has embraced and put her husband in charge of her campaign.
Mrs. Clinton often looks lost, she does not like confrontation and has so many ethical problems she can hardly get a policy word out.
Her speech yesterday on the Iran nuke deal was actually incisive, although I disagree with her contention that Iran will be contained. It won't be.
Unless they are overthrown, we will have to fight the mullahs down the road. Israel knows that, most of our intelligence folks know that.
We should not be giving Iran any tools to make that pernicious country more powerful.
Hillary Clinton may not understand this but her associations matter. Allying herself with smear merchants and dishonest political hacks sends a strong message.
Again, Bill Clinton needs to take over this operation and clean house.
As for Bernie Sanders, he is almost as entertaining as Trump.
The old socialist warrior from Brooklyn is burning up the stump by telling folks who are struggling that capitalism is to blame.
Of course Bernie would drive this country into a depression if he ever got elected, but he won't get elected.
However, I give him a lot of credit. He's a true believer who wants to do good. He just doesn't understand that in a nation of 320-million people the free marketplace is where prosperity lies, not in the tired hallways of Washington, D.C.
Finally, Vice President Biden.
I expect to see him in the race shortly, most likely announcing after the Pope departs at the end of this month.
Could be wrong about that, as his emotional state is something no outsider can assess.
Biden is a savvy player who has one big stone around his neck.
He's exactly the same as President Obama, there is no difference.
All the polls say about two-thirds of Americans believe the country is going in the wrong direction and are not satisfied with the way the Obama administration has handled things.
So Biden starts with a big deficit and in a debate with Trump, for example, would get hammered beyond belief.
But lay off his looks, okay Donald?
And that's the memo.
|