By Bill O'Reilly

An article in The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday says Mr. Trump is investigating setting up organizations in some primary states, signaling he may very well run for president. That, of course, would shake up the Republican Party and change the dynamics of the 2012 election big-time.

The problem with a Trump candidacy is his frame of reference. A few weeks ago, we had a very lively conversation with the real estate baron, who said flat-out he would slap a 25 percent tariff on Chinese goods if the Chinese didn't stop manipulating their currency. That would lead to a trade war. And then he said he would seize the Iraqi oil fields.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, REAL ESTATE MOGUL: Iran -- two minutes after we leave, Iran is going to come in and take over the oil.

BILL O'REILLY, HOST: We know, but what do you do about it?

TRUMP: You stay and protect the oil and you take the oil. We go in and we take over the second largest oil fields and we stay.

O'REILLY: So you're going to take over the Iraqi oil fields.

TRUMP: Well, I'm not going to hand it back to Iran. That I can tell you. Don't smile.

O'REILLY: I'm just saying, look…

TRUMP: Listen, that's the problem.

O'REILLY: …if you're going to go with China and you're going to threaten them and then you're going to threaten OPEC.

TRUMP: I'm not threatening China.

O'REILLY: Twenty-five percent…

TRUMP: I'm saying to China that unless you behave, that unless…

O'REILLY: And then if you're going to go into the Iraq oil fields and take them over…

TRUMP: Bill, Bill.

O'REILLY: …there's going to be a lot of blowback.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

Just think about this: If the USA actually did seize the Iraqi oil fields, no one in the world would support us. No one. We'd be condemned by the United Nations, the Arab world would go wild, and even allies like Britain and France would criticize us. An action like that could very well start World War III.

I submit that Donald Trump knows that and is being provocative because he understands many Americans believe we got a bad deal in Iraq, and we did. We spent almost a trillion dollars freeing those people and they haven't paid us back a cent. But you can't seize their oil.

Having known Donald Trump for years, I can tell you a few things. He's a smart guy, he's an impatient man, and he doesn't much care what anybody thinks about him. He thinks most politicians are buffoons, phonies, incompetent in the extreme. In the primary debates, Donald Trump would steal the show and little would be off the table. Just ask Rosie O'Donnell.

The question: Is the Republican Party well served by a Trump run? Only you, the voter, can answer that question.

In the end, a Trump candidacy would help Barack Obama because it would divide the Republican Party. That is, unless Mr. Trump wins the primary battle. Then Mr. Obama might have a huge problem.

And that's "The Memo."

Pinheads & Patriots

On "The View" the other day, the ladies asked Jill Biden why her husband apparently fell asleep during the president's recent speech.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOY BEHAR, CO-HOST, "THE VIEW": Have you been giving him decaf lately or something? Because he sort of took a nap during the president's speech.

JILL BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN'S WIFE: He does that to me all the time.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

So was Mrs. Biden's snappy reply, "He does that to me all the time," patriotic or pinheaded? Please vote on BillOReilly.com.

Tuesday night we featured conservative George Will saying this about Donald Trump:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE WILL, CONSERVATIVE COLUMNIST: He can make a shambles of the Republican debates. Just by being there, he can hurt the Republican Party. He is what's called a blatherskite. That was a word my grandmother was fond of. That's someone who blathers promiscuously. He's had an epiphany now. He's suddenly discovered, at whatever age he is, that he is pro-life.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

Well, 74 percent of you say Mr. Will is a pinhead; 26 percent a patriot.

— You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" and "Pinheads & Patriots" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the Fox News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: oreilly@foxnews.com.